The era of safe dependencies is over. What does that mean for investors, companies, and the startups in DeepTech and beyond? Here are my insights from the Aspen Institute Germany German American Trade and Tech Conference 2026. I was on as a guest on the panel Strategic Autonomy or Alliance Integration? Transatlantic Defense Cooperation at a Cross Roads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
My question concerned the European conundrum of seeking to retain and commercialise IP while lacking sufficiently deep private capital markets and risk appetite to fund DeepTech.
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Dependency is the new risk category<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Can you build a stable, valuable business on a stack you don’t control? Supply chains, cloud platforms, AI infrastructure, and data links are all arenas where dependency has quietly migrated from commercial inconvenience to existential risk. Companies with concentrated geopolitical exposure \u2014 single-source suppliers, critical infrastructure in adversarial jurisdictions, revenue tied to politically unstable trade routes \u2014 are being discounted. Those with verticalized, resilient operations are commanding a premium. Resilience is no longer a cost center. It is a valuation driver, and any leadership team that has not mapped its strategic dependencies with the same rigor applied to credit or currency risk is operating with a material blind spot.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The deep tech funding gap is a market opportunity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe needs alternatives to the dominant technology stacks \u2014 in semiconductors, AI, space, cybersecurity, and dual-use defense. The structural gap is not talent or ambition; it is patient private risk capital and the policy frameworks needed to de-risk early-stage investment in strategic technologies. For investors with the conviction and the horizon, this is a significant opening. The companies that close the sovereignty gap will not just create European IP \u2014 they will define the infrastructure the next economy runs on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Standardization is the next competitive frontier<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n AI and physical supply chains are being shaped right now by decisions that look technical but are fundamentally political. Who sets the standards determines who competes, on what terms, and at what cost. Standards are increasingly used not to enable interoperability but to entrench incumbents and exclude challengers. For deep tech startups, this is both a threat and an opportunity: engage in standardization processes early, or inherit a framework built to serve someone else’s interests. For investors, backing companies that shape standards \u2014 not just comply with them \u2014 is a qualitatively different bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We are already in a hybrid war \u2014 and infrastructure is the front line<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine was the first commercial war, fought in part on private satellites, logistics networks, and communications infrastructure. That precedent has permanently changed the calculus around critical infrastructure investment. Cybersecurity is now a core operational and strategic capability, not a compliance checkbox. Space is the newest frontier: jamming, counter-space measures, and the security of data links and undersea cables are live concerns. SMEs working in dual-use defense, secure communications, and resilient infrastructure are increasingly central to national security \u2014 and increasingly eligible for public co-investment alongside private capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rules still matter \u2014 and predictability is what the market runs on<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Even as competition intensifies, rules-based frameworks remain the precondition for investable markets. Middle powers outside the US-China axis are growing in strategic weight and actively seeking partners who offer stability and reciprocity \u2014 they are underweighted in most growth strategies relative to their actual importance. Policies enacted without genuine public understanding tend to generate backlash that unravels them. The next decade of growth will not be won only in the major economies, and it will not be built on frameworks that lack legitimacy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The era of safe dependencies is over. What does that mean for investors, companies, and the startups in DeepTech and beyond? Here are my insights from the Aspen Institute Germany German American Trade and Tech Conference 2026. I was a guest on the panel Strategic Autonomy or Alliance Integration? Transatlantic Defense Cooperation at a Cross Roads. <\/p>\n My question concerned the European conundrum of seeking to retain and commercialise IP while lacking sufficiently deep private capital markets and risk appetite to fund DeepTech.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[51,43,59,22,61,68,66,67],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-current-events","category-cybersecurity","category-data-politics","category-digital-sovereignty","category-investments","category-resilience","category-vc","wpcat-51-id","wpcat-43-id","wpcat-59-id","wpcat-22-id","wpcat-61-id","wpcat-68-id","wpcat-66-id","wpcat-67-id"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t